After 107 days of turmoil, the US and Iran have finally agreed to end the conflict. Will this lead to a drop in oil prices in India? How did the deal between Iran and the US actually come about behind the scenes, and who won the conflict? Let’s find out in today’s episode. Hello, I am Aditya. Late on the night of June 14, the Pakistani Prime Minister announced that a peace agreement had been reached between the US and Iran. Following this, Trump tweeted that the deal with Iran was complete, telling the world’s ships to start their engines and let the oil flow. Iran also confirmed that the terms had been finalized. Both nations are set to sign the peace agreement in Geneva, Switzerland, on June 19. However, it would be premature to declare the conflict officially over; there are three reasons for this. First, Trump himself does not seem fully confident in the deal; he stated that if the US is not satisfied regarding the nuclear program, strict measures will be taken. Second, just hours before the announcement, Israel launched attacks on Lebanon; Israel’s National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, stated that Israel is not bound by the US-Iran agreement. Third, Iran has placed three conditions before the US: lifting the blockade, halting war and military actions, and releasing Iran’s frozen funds. But how did this deal actually come together behind the scenes? It began on March 22, when Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir spoke with Trump. On April 7, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire. On April 12, a marathon 21-hour meeting took place between the US and Iran in Islamabad. According to Al Jazeera, Trump called Munir and insisted that he get the deal done at any cost. Then, on May 23, Munir traveled to Tehran to meet with Iranian officials. Initially, Pakistan was merely assisting, but it eventually took a leading role. Between June 1 and June 5, representatives from the US and Iran met in Doha to discuss various issues, including the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequently, on June 14, Qatari officials visited Tehran for multiple meetings; Iranian media has also acknowledged that Qatar played a key role in finalizing the deal.
According to the think tank ‘Virus’, Qatar’s involvement in the deal was driven by economic factors, specifically regarding a large portion of Iran’s frozen funds… The funds are currently held in banks; should Iran demand them in the future, the transfer will be executed from Qatar. Defense analyst Vishal Kawade observes that Pakistan lacks the leverage to broker a deal between the two sides. A 14-point draft proposal has been prepared—reportedly involving policy writers and Iranian news agencies—which includes conditions such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz, halting attacks on the Iran-Lebanon axis, removing sanctions on Iranian shipping and maritime trade, ensuring Iran does not develop nuclear weapons, and releasing Iran’s frozen assets. But who won this conflict? Nitin Gokhale states that the US has clearly lost this war. Despite a weak economy and diminished military power, Iran successfully withstood US-Israeli attacks, maintained its proxy networks, and secured the release of its frozen funds. The US had two objectives—destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities and achieving regime change—but both failed. Notably, when the Strait of Hormuz was threatened during the crisis, crude oil prices surged from $72 to $120 per barrel; prices stood at $86 on June 12, but dropped by 4.1% immediately upon the announcement of the peace agreement. In India, oil companies have been incurring losses of approximately ₹900 crore daily, even after the price hike. While falling crude oil prices will reduce these losses, it may take up to six months for fuel prices to return to previous levels. The cessation of hostilities will bring Iran relief from US sanctions and boost trade through the Indian-developed Chabahar Port, enabling Indian goods to reach Iran, Afghanistan, and Central Asia directly.
Asim Munir ordered AK-47 fire on people demanding flour and rice: The story of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir—a region with its own PM, President, and flag
This is the city of Rawalakot in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. On June 11, thousands of protesters gathered at the Eidgah ground to demand basic rights such as flour, rice, and electricity. The Pakistan Army opened fire with AK-47s; one person was killed, and 37 protesters were injured. India has strongly condemned this atrocity committed by Pakistan. Here is the full story of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
On July 18, 1947, under the Indian Independence Act, the country was partitioned into India and Pakistan. At that time, Maharaja Hari Singh of Kashmir chose to remain independent. However, on October 22, 1947, 5,000 Pakistan-backed tribal invaders began an attempt to capture Kashmir. On October 26, 1947, the Maharaja signed the Instrument of Accession to India. The Indian Army arrived in Srinagar and began pushing back the invaders. The matter reached the UN on December 31, 1947, and a ceasefire was finally declared on January 1, 1949. The armies of both nations remained in their respective positions; by then, Pakistan held 35% of Kashmir’s territory. This is what is known today as PoK (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir) or PoJK (Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir). In 1972, the Shimla Agreement transformed the ceasefire line into the Line of Control (LoC). Currently, there are distinct parts of Jammu and Kashmir; while India claims sovereignty over the entire region, Pakistan and China occupy four of these parts. Now, look at the yellow section on the map of Jammu and Kashmir. To us, this entire area is PoK (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir).
However, Pakistan classifies 50% of this area—Gilgit-Baltistan—as its own territory, while the remaining 15% is designated as ‘Azad Kashmir.’ In 1949, following the ceasefire, a ‘secret’ Karachi Agreement was concluded; under this pact, Muhammad Ibrahim (then President of PoK) relinquished control of Gilgit-Baltistan, effectively ceding the area to Pakistan. Crucially, no representative from the Gilgit region was included in the agreement. Following this pact, Ibrahim was removed from the presidency. Ibrahim belonged to the Sudhan tribe of Kashmir, which was the first to rise against Maharaja Hari Singh; however, Pakistan’s actions turned the entire community against it, leading to brutal crackdowns by the Pakistani army and a major rebellion. While that covers Gilgit-Baltistan, let us also examine just how “free” Azad Kashmir actually is. The final constitution for Azad Jammu & Kashmir was drafted in 1974, establishing a High Court, a Supreme Court, and an Election Commissioner; however, these institutions were largely a mere facade. That same year, another body—the Azad Jammu & Kashmir Council—was created, with the Prime Minister of Pakistan serving as its Chairman and the President of Azad Kashmir as its Vice-Chairman. A 2018 constitutional amendment transferred all the Council’s powers to the Pakistani government, meaning Azad Kashmir cannot make a single decision independently. Today, the people of Azad Kashmir are fighting for their rights. The Mangla Dam, built on the Jhelum River in the region, supplies 10–15% of Pakistan’s electricity, yet the residents themselves are forced to purchase 92% of their power from Pakistan. Violent protests against high electricity costs erupted there as recently as 2023. The locals are also aggrieved by projects involving China; the Kohala and Karot hydropower projects, along with the 4,800 MW Diamer-Bhasha Dam, are being constructed there, yet the benefits will go to Pakistanis rather than the local population. Although the region is rich in natural herbs, the locals are not adequately compensated for them. On June 7, the local Supreme Court ruled to retain the 12 reserved seats in the Azad Kashmir Assembly; critics allege that the occupants of these reserved seats are loyal to the Pakistani government rather than to Azad Kashmir, and this ruling has sparked ongoing unrest in the region.